Are we seeing a new Russian Revolution

[Raving NLI]

I’ve no doubt that the ease with which Wagner headed north to Moscow unimpeded will not have been lost on the Ukrainian armed Russian Freedom Fighters attacking Belgorod in southern Russia.

Even more so, the cheering and seeming adoration of Wagner by cheering crowds in Rostov on Don, suggests that there are many Russians who are unhappy with the current Putin regime, and who’d welcome change.

The two groups of Russian Freedom Fighters should be emboldened by this, this provides a great recruitment opportunity for The Freedom of Russia Legion and The Russian Volunteer Corps, and they’d be daft not to realise this and act on it with haste.

[Raven NLI]

Has anyone considered that Prighozin was offered the chance of planning a new attack on Kyiv from Belarusian soil?
Now there’s a prize that Wagner and its leader would happily attack and try and capture, rather than repeat the months long slaughter of Bakhmut.

I’m just trying to understand how Putin has managed to appease and calm down the attack dog he created with some kind of treat acceptable to Prighozin that caused him to stop his March on Moscow, after Prighozin added Putin’s name to “the list” when Putin called him out on treason.

Whatever the reason, Prighozin needs an official food tester, and plenty of Wagner security around him whenever he’s in a tall building.

I’m just speculating, but with the Ukrainian counteroffensive about to move into its heaviest phase, with 9 out of 12 Brigades equipped by the west, about to go onto the attack, a great ploy by Russia would be a new armoured thrust toward Kyiv.
They won’t get bogged down in muddy ground and have to stick to roads and get slaughtered like they did when they attacked Kyiv last year.

Prighozin being cheered by ordinary Russians will not of escaped him, and he’s the type of guy who’d love the adoration he’d receive for taking Kyiv.

Just thinking out loud, Prighozin reacts better to carrot than stick. He seeks glory, not the presidential office.

Wow, the BBC news are now speculating on this and wondering if it was all a ploy to get Wagner to Belarus to unsettle Kyiv.
If Kyiv becomes threatened by armoured thrusts by Wagner from Belarus, they might have to withdraw troops from other battle zones to reinforce their capital.
I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Cactus Jack]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

[Raving NLI]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

[Holly]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

[Raving NLI]

Has anyone considered that Prighozin was offered the chance of planning a new attack on Kyiv from Belarusian soil?
Now there’s a prize that Wagner and its leader would happily attack and try and capture, rather than repeat the months long slaughter of Bakhmut.

I’m just trying to understand how Putin has managed to appease and calm down the attack dog he created with some kind of treat acceptable to Prighozin that caused him to stop his March on Moscow, after Prighozin added Putin’s name to “the list” when Putin called him out on treason.

Whatever the reason, Prighozin needs an official food tester, and plenty of Wagner security around him whenever he’s in a tall building.

I’m just speculating, but with the Ukrainian counteroffensive about to move into its heaviest phase, with 9 out of 12 Brigades equipped by the west, about to go onto the attack, a great ploy by Russia would be a new armoured thrust toward Kyiv.
They won’t get bogged down in muddy ground and have to stick to roads and get slaughtered like they did when they attacked Kyiv last year.

Prighozin being cheered by ordinary Russians will not of escaped him, and he’s the type of guy who’d love the adoration he’d receive for taking Kyiv.

Just thinking out loud, Prighozin reacts better to carrot than stick. He seeks glory, not the presidential office.

Just wanting to add that, as Putin flew east as the Wagner group headed to Moscow, and only flew back to Moscow once Wagner agreed to retreat, he will undoubtedly seen as weak, and perhaps a coward by many in Kremlin inner circles who have ambition.
He’s not shown himself to be an iron hand on the tiller, he’s weakened his own position enormously.
Couple that with people cheering Wagner, and Military forces simply unwilling to fight Wagner, and it’s clear that neither Putin, or his general staff have total control over the country’s power.
Prighozin meanwhile has solidified himself as some kind of folk hero, if Puting has him killed, it might do more harm than good.

[Raving NLI]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

Personally I would like a non-war mongering despot like Putin himself taking over.
I would prefer to see a western orientated, democracy loving new leader like Navalny.
That would bring peace and reconciliation with Ukraine and the west and NATO.
Ordinary Russians deserve a lot better than what they’ve had to endure for decades.
They’re a matin that has a lot to offer the international community.
Wholesale changes would be needed, the removal of oligarchs and state ownership of their companies, that they were simply handed, so as to enrich ordinary Russians.
It’s s fanciful dream, I just wish the best for the Russian people,

[Holly]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

Personally I would like a non-war mongering despot like Putin himself taking over.
I would prefer to see a western orientated, democracy loving new leader like Navalny.
That would bring peace and reconciliation with Ukraine and the west and NATO.
Ordinary Russians deserve a lot better than what they’ve had to endure for decades.
They’re a matin that has a lot to offer the international community.
Wholesale changes would be needed, the removal of oligarchs and state ownership of their companies, that they were simply handed, so as to enrich ordinary Russians.
It’s s fanciful dream, I just wish the best for the Russian people,

Russia needs another Boris Yeltsin. Of what I've read about him, he was a great leader, although not without problems. However he brought democracy to Russia, where it had never existed before.
I'm obviously no expert, but am I right? Was he good for Russia?

[Grafenwalder]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

Unfortunately for now.

Prigozhin also doesn't appear to have had any exit strategy in place as to what his intentions were had Putin rolled over though I don't think anyone expected to see tanks rolling into Russia!

[Cactus Jack]

You've got to feel something for the Russian people.

In just under 15 months they gone from having the second best army in the world, via the having the second best army in The Ukraine to having the second best army in Russia.

It's pretty plain that Russian troops simply were not prepared to fight for the survival of the regime and without that threat it's difficult to see the Putin holding on to power.

[Stooo]

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

I can see the RF breaking up much like the SU did after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989.

Public mood has shifted after international sanctions and your average Moscow and StP. citizen wants things to go back to normal. I can see the RF breaking into three 'partnership' territories governed by warlords and oligarchs initially while they get their money out, the next regimes will gravitate towards Western values and acceptance in order to repair their regions with independence for individual countries as well as local trading partnerships geared towards internation trade after local issues are resolved.

China may well advance North into Siberia at this time with no resistance (China has not applied sanctions to RF goods and imports and are 'owed'), taking territory that has no strategic use other than alarming Alaska and by extension the wider USA.

[Rolluplostinspace]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

Personally I would like a non-war mongering despot like Putin himself taking over.
I would prefer to see a western orientated, democracy loving new leader like Navalny.
That would bring peace and reconciliation with Ukraine and the west and NATO.
Ordinary Russians deserve a lot better than what they’ve had to endure for decades.
They’re a matin that has a lot to offer the international community.
Wholesale changes would be needed, the removal of oligarchs and state ownership of their companies, that they were simply handed, so as to enrich ordinary Russians.
It’s s fanciful dream, I just wish the best for the Russian people,

You really see a return to communism as being some kind of antidote for the mess that is Russia?

[Rolluplostinspace]

You've got to feel something for the Russian people.

In just under 15 months they gone from having the second best army in the world, via the having the second best army in The Ukraine to having the second best army in Russia.

Yes I saw that comment on BBC 24 yesterday.
You really should link to your sources instead of trying to make it look like your own thoughts.

[Raving NLI]

It's more likely we're seeing an erosion of Putin's power.

There are rumours that apart from his troubles in Ukraine Vladimir Putin has been seriously ill for some time. A quick victory in Ukraine would have been enough for him to stabilise his power base and give him time to concentrate on creating and orderly succession - that's a luxury he no longer has.

Russia is now weaker than it was a week ago.

Agreed C.J., however as and when and if he goes, by natural or “unnatural” death, he will leave a power vacuum.
Who will replace him? We must be careful what we wish for, the next person to takeover could me even more of a bastard.
Putin is the glue that’s held together the Russian Federation, whilst some far flung parts of the federation have openly been discussing autonomy - especially when they’ve seen their men selected as cannon fodder whilst the richer western parts of Russia, like Moscow and St Petersburg have been relatively untouched.


I’m reminded of the death of Tito, the break up of Yugoslavia and the Balkan’s war erupting into ethnic genocide and lots of rape and pillage
Slovenia, being furthest from Belgrade, simply put up border posts and declared independence.
So when Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo tried to do the same Belgrade tried to impose its will by force.
It was a bloodbath, total slaughter of men women and children with no quarter given.

Will Putin’s eventual eventual demise lead to another Russian civil war?
I really don’t know, but there are some worrying times ahead for Russian citizens.
If Ukraine’s counter offensive succeeds and all Russian forces forced out of Ukraine, especially Crimea, the shit will hit the fan too.

That's exactly it. Who will replace him? It might be someone even more dictatorial just waiting in the wings to get the ultimate power.
Better the devil we know, than the one we don't I guess.
I can't see Russia becoming a democracy should Putin fall, can you?

Personally I would like a non-war mongering despot like Putin himself taking over.
I would prefer to see a western orientated, democracy loving new leader like Navalny.
That would bring peace and reconciliation with Ukraine and the west and NATO.
Ordinary Russians deserve a lot better than what they’ve had to endure for decades.
They’re a matin that has a lot to offer the international community.
Wholesale changes would be needed, the removal of oligarchs and state ownership of their companies, that they were simply handed, so as to enrich ordinary Russians.
It’s s fanciful dream, I just wish the best for the Russian people,

You really see a return to communism as being some kind of antidote for the mess that is Russia?

Are you saying the Labour Party are communists?

Read again my bit about Navalny, western leaning and Navalny.

HTH

[Raving NLI]

Has anyone considered that Prighozin was offered the chance of planning a new attack on Kyiv from Belarusian soil?
Now there’s a prize that Wagner and its leader would happily attack and try and capture, rather than repeat the months long slaughter of Bakhmut.

I’m just trying to understand how Putin has managed to appease and calm down the attack dog he created with some kind of treat acceptable to Prighozin that caused him to stop his March on Moscow, after Prighozin added Putin’s name to “the list” when Putin called him out on treason.

Whatever the reason, Prighozin needs an official food tester, and plenty of Wagner security around him whenever he’s in a tall building.

I’m just speculating, but with the Ukrainian counteroffensive about to move into its heaviest phase, with 9 out of 12 Brigades equipped by the west, about to go onto the attack, a great ploy by Russia would be a new armoured thrust toward Kyiv.
They won’t get bogged down in muddy ground and have to stick to roads and get slaughtered like they did when they attacked Kyiv last year.

Prighozin being cheered by ordinary Russians will not of escaped him, and he’s the type of guy who’d love the adoration he’d receive for taking Kyiv.

Just thinking out loud, Prighozin reacts better to carrot than stick. He seeks glory, not the presidential office.

Wow, the BBC news are now speculating on this and wondering if it was all a ploy to get Wagner to Belarus to unsettle Kyiv.
If Kyiv becomes threatened by armoured thrusts by Wagner from Belarus, they might have to withdraw troops from other battle zones to reinforce their capital.
I guess we will have to wait and see.

I speculated that Prighozin’s reward might be to command new armoured thrusts from Belarus to try and capture Kyiv on here before the news copied me.
They didn’t cite me as being the source - bastards
If Wagner join him there, are given the armour resources and ammo, plus air support to do the Job, then he will love that!
He’s now a folk hero among Russians and the man who took Kyiv title would arouse his ego.
Interesting times.