Tracking breakthrough COVID-19 cases in Texas

[Cactus Jack]

HOUSTON – As COVID-19 cases and concerns about the Delta variant rise, so do questions about breakthrough cases or cases where people test positive after being fully vaccinated.

“They are actually not uncommon,” said Dr. Linda Yancey, infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann. “No vaccine is 100 percent effective and our COVID vaccines are about 95 percent effective.”

The Texas Department of State Health Services said it has tracked 233 “clinically severe” breakthrough cases since February, or cases that resulted in hospitalization or death. Of that total, 43 were deaths.

But the overall number of breakthrough cases is likely higher since the state said it stopped tracking the others in May when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention switched gears.

https://www.click2houston.com/health/20 ... t-we-know/

Because we get regular, if slightly biased, updates from the State of Texas since it opened up before the start of the summer it provides a reasonable model of how opening up may proceed. Thanks here to Maddog for his contribution.

Doing a little research for more empirical data I saw that prior to 2 March this year Texas has seen 17 consecutive days of falling covid rates and hospitalisations. All the signs were certainly looking positive and the medical advice from the CDC was, and I'm paraphrasing here 'the vaccine is doing it's job and just a matter of time before we're through this'.

Unfortunately this 'stay the course' message was misinterpretted by the media and, possibly for that reason, by Texas government. By ending mask mandates and restrictions too soon they lost control of the situation and the delta variant began to spread - and significantly it began to spread in the vaccinated population.

The article linked paints a bleak picture but does provide some practical advice on containing the disease.

In the past week in the UK we've followed the same pattern. Although numbers testing postive are down, possibly because almost one million fewer test were done, deaths are up by 10% and hospitalisations by 19%.

Are we following Texas down the primrose path to perdition?.

[HobbitFeet]

do you trawl the internet to find articles about Texas and Covid?


that's quite a specialised fetish

and quit with the goading

[Cactus Jack]

OK I'm sure Maddog, who is such a special snowflake he can't possibly speak for himself, appreciates the matronly protection you're offering.

Now the facts are that Texas was one of the first states to open up completely as it's largely conservative media presented a picture of a pandemic in retreat based on the use of vaccines alone. Something immunolgists and epidemiologists were as quick to condemn when Governor Abbott suggested it as a strategy as they have been when our own Conservative government have gone down the same route.

Comparing the outcome over a five month period in Texas with the likely outcome in the UK is a completely valid point for discussion so perhaps you could comment on the story itself instead of trying to protect your little pets - who I can assure you don't need protection.

[HobbitFeet]

I have zero affinity with maddog

i don't think I've spoken to him more than a handful of times

but hey, whatever gets you through the night

[Cactus Jack]

I have zero affinity with maddog

i don't think I've spoken to him more than a handful of times

but hey, whatever gets you through the night

You're still avoiding the substance of the thread.

Five months ago after a sustained decline in the number of new cases, Texas took the decision to remove all or most covid restrictions leaving it to personal choice and business to have their own policy.

The outcome from that is 'breakthrough' cases - that is cases among peope who are aready fully vaccinated - have risen steeply and although hospitalisation rates are lower the proportion of those hospitalised who go on to die is slightly higher too.

There may be a number of reasons for this. The vaccine may lose efficacy after a few months, as was speculated right at the beginning. The Delta Variant may be more vaccine resistant or the level of exposure when fully unlocked may be just too high for even vaccinated people to cope with.

Whatever the reasons we have seen three instances now where vaccination alone has not been effective in controlling covid and perhaps we should have a strategy that isn't 'let all the old people die and don't give care to premature babies' in place.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... e-elderly/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... es-denied/

[Maddog]

The infection rate continued to fall for months after the March 2 announcement.

Like every other place on the planet that has been exposed to the Delta variant, there has been a slight increase in infections, but nothing as bad as we have seen.

The vaccines are working to keep most of us relatively safe and able to enjoy a normal lifestyle..

[Maddog]

do you trawl the internet to find articles about Texas and Covid?


that's quite a specialised fetish

and quit with the goading

He likes me.

And he can't help it.

[Stooo]

HOUSTON – As COVID-19 cases and concerns about the Delta variant rise, so do questions about breakthrough cases or cases where people test positive after being fully vaccinated.

“They are actually not uncommon,” said Dr. Linda Yancey, infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann. “No vaccine is 100 percent effective and our COVID vaccines are about 95 percent effective.”

The Texas Department of State Health Services said it has tracked 233 “clinically severe” breakthrough cases since February, or cases that resulted in hospitalization or death. Of that total, 43 were deaths.

But the overall number of breakthrough cases is likely higher since the state said it stopped tracking the others in May when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention switched gears.

https://www.click2houston.com/health/20 ... t-we-know/

Because we get regular, if slightly biased, updates from the State of Texas since it opened up before the start of the summer it provides a reasonable model of how opening up may proceed. Thanks here to Maddog for his contribution.

Doing a little research for more empirical data I saw that prior to 2 March this year Texas has seen 17 consecutive days of falling covid rates and hospitalisations. All the signs were certainly looking positive and the medical advice from the CDC was, and I'm paraphrasing here 'the vaccine is doing it's job and just a matter of time before we're through this'.

Unfortunately this 'stay the course' message was misinterpretted by the media and, possibly for that reason, by Texas government. By ending mask mandates and restrictions too soon they lost control of the situation and the delta variant began to spread - and significantly it began to spread in the vaccinated population.

The article linked paints a bleak picture but does provide some practical advice on containing the disease.

In the past week in the UK we've followed the same pattern. Although numbers testing postive are down, possibly because almost one million fewer test were done, deaths are up by 10% and hospitalisations by 19%.

Are we following Texas down the primrose path to perdition?.

Do some UK stuff, no-one cares.

[Cactus Jack]

HOUSTON – As COVID-19 cases and concerns about the Delta variant rise, so do questions about breakthrough cases or cases where people test positive after being fully vaccinated.

“They are actually not uncommon,” said Dr. Linda Yancey, infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann. “No vaccine is 100 percent effective and our COVID vaccines are about 95 percent effective.”

The Texas Department of State Health Services said it has tracked 233 “clinically severe” breakthrough cases since February, or cases that resulted in hospitalization or death. Of that total, 43 were deaths.

But the overall number of breakthrough cases is likely higher since the state said it stopped tracking the others in May when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention switched gears.

https://www.click2houston.com/health/20 ... t-we-know/

Because we get regular, if slightly biased, updates from the State of Texas since it opened up before the start of the summer it provides a reasonable model of how opening up may proceed. Thanks here to Maddog for his contribution.

Doing a little research for more empirical data I saw that prior to 2 March this year Texas has seen 17 consecutive days of falling covid rates and hospitalisations. All the signs were certainly looking positive and the medical advice from the CDC was, and I'm paraphrasing here 'the vaccine is doing it's job and just a matter of time before we're through this'.

Unfortunately this 'stay the course' message was misinterpretted by the media and, possibly for that reason, by Texas government. By ending mask mandates and restrictions too soon they lost control of the situation and the delta variant began to spread - and significantly it began to spread in the vaccinated population.

The article linked paints a bleak picture but does provide some practical advice on containing the disease.

In the past week in the UK we've followed the same pattern. Although numbers testing postive are down, possibly because almost one million fewer test were done, deaths are up by 10% and hospitalisations by 19%.

Are we following Texas down the primrose path to perdition?.

Do some UK stuff, no-one cares.

This is UK stuff - try to use experience from elsewhere to extrapolate what will happen here.

[Maddog]

HOUSTON – As COVID-19 cases and concerns about the Delta variant rise, so do questions about breakthrough cases or cases where people test positive after being fully vaccinated.

“They are actually not uncommon,” said Dr. Linda Yancey, infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann. “No vaccine is 100 percent effective and our COVID vaccines are about 95 percent effective.”

The Texas Department of State Health Services said it has tracked 233 “clinically severe” breakthrough cases since February, or cases that resulted in hospitalization or death. Of that total, 43 were deaths.

But the overall number of breakthrough cases is likely higher since the state said it stopped tracking the others in May when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention switched gears.

https://www.click2houston.com/health/20 ... t-we-know/

Because we get regular, if slightly biased, updates from the State of Texas since it opened up before the start of the summer it provides a reasonable model of how opening up may proceed. Thanks here to Maddog for his contribution.

Doing a little research for more empirical data I saw that prior to 2 March this year Texas has seen 17 consecutive days of falling covid rates and hospitalisations. All the signs were certainly looking positive and the medical advice from the CDC was, and I'm paraphrasing here 'the vaccine is doing it's job and just a matter of time before we're through this'.

Unfortunately this 'stay the course' message was misinterpretted by the media and, possibly for that reason, by Texas government. By ending mask mandates and restrictions too soon they lost control of the situation and the delta variant began to spread - and significantly it began to spread in the vaccinated population.

The article linked paints a bleak picture but does provide some practical advice on containing the disease.

In the past week in the UK we've followed the same pattern. Although numbers testing postive are down, possibly because almost one million fewer test were done, deaths are up by 10% and hospitalisations by 19%.

Are we following Texas down the primrose path to perdition?.

Do some UK stuff, no-one cares.

I sorta care, but he is a bit obsessive.

[Stooo]

This is UK stuff - try to use experience from elsewhere to extrapolate what will happen here.

It clearly has Texas in the title, no-one cares.

[Cactus Jack]

This is UK stuff - try to use experience from elsewhere to extrapolate what will happen here.

It clearly has Texas in the title, no-one cares.

The initial title was going to have :a lesson for the UK? at the end but I ran out of space.

[Maddog]

The UK is actually referenced in this story. Folks here might find it interesting, or not.


https://reason.com/2021/07/30/the-provi ... that-risk/

[Lady Murasaki]

I have zero affinity with maddog

i don't think I've spoken to him more than a handful of times

but hey, whatever gets you through the night

You're still avoiding the substance of the thread.

Five months ago after a sustained decline in the number of new cases, Texas took the decision to remove all or most covid restrictions leaving it to personal choice and business to have their own policy.

The outcome from that is 'breakthrough' cases - that is cases among peope who are aready fully vaccinated - have risen steeply and although hospitalisation rates are lower the proportion of those hospitalised who go on to die is slightly higher too.

There may be a number of reasons for this. The vaccine may lose efficacy after a few months, as was speculated right at the beginning. The Delta Variant may be more vaccine resistant or the level of exposure when fully unlocked may be just too high for even vaccinated people to cope with.

Whatever the reasons we have seen three instances now where vaccination alone has not been effective in controlling covid and perhaps we should have a strategy that isn't 'let all the old people die and don't give care to premature babies' in place.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... e-elderly/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... es-denied/

What strategy do you suggest? The vaccines give some protection but don’t stop you catching other variants or getting ill, it does seem to curb the worst effects for most people. Our scientists have informed us of this. What else can be done?

[Cactus Jack]

You're still avoiding the substance of the thread.

Five months ago after a sustained decline in the number of new cases, Texas took the decision to remove all or most covid restrictions leaving it to personal choice and business to have their own policy.

The outcome from that is 'breakthrough' cases - that is cases among peope who are aready fully vaccinated - have risen steeply and although hospitalisation rates are lower the proportion of those hospitalised who go on to die is slightly higher too.

There may be a number of reasons for this. The vaccine may lose efficacy after a few months, as was speculated right at the beginning. The Delta Variant may be more vaccine resistant or the level of exposure when fully unlocked may be just too high for even vaccinated people to cope with.

Whatever the reasons we have seen three instances now where vaccination alone has not been effective in controlling covid and perhaps we should have a strategy that isn't 'let all the old people die and don't give care to premature babies' in place.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... e-elderly/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... es-denied/

What strategy do you suggest? The vaccines give some protection but don’t stop you catching other variants or getting ill, it does seem to curb the worst effects for most people. Our scientists have informed us of this. What else can be done?

To start with I would have stayed at level 3 until at least 80% of population was double vaccinated as the scientists have advised.

Second I would have used the same carrot the government is using now - only being allowed into hospitality venues with a valid vaccination certificate unless exempt, as an incentive for younger people to get vaccinated during July and August the explicit and stated condition that restrictions would not be lifted until the level of vaccinations went above 80%.

Third I would be looking at a program of booster jabs starting in September beside the flu vaccine.

Forth I would have a face coverings must be worn on public transport mandate in place - most of the train companies already strongly encourage so it wouldn't have made that much of a difference.

Fifth I would make it a criminal offence to sack a worker for being off with covid and put a scheme in place to ensure that any worker self-isolating is paid 80% of their normal or contracted hours.

Six. To balance the above I would also make it a criminal offence to knowlingly or recklessly expose others to Covid if you have tested positive and back that up with a three month prison sentence. 10 days self isolating in your own home isn't as bad compared to that.

Seven I would have published advice to all employers strongly suggesting that workers should self test twice a week and should not turn up for work if feeling ill - even when they test negative.

I think that would have new infections at a sufficiently low level when schools return in September and we see the next inevitable spike.