Coronavirus Thread Part 3

[Rolluplostinspace]

In my tiny county of about 2.3 million people, we had 1528 people in the hospital with Covid on Jan 6 of this year. On June 6 it was down to 84 people. Now it's back up to 869 as of yesterday. Obviously the Delta variant is taking it's toll, especially on the unvacinnated.

I did see deaths leveling off so maybe folks are heeding the warnings and getting their damn shots. Or maybe they want to gamble with their lives.

They're also gambling with your.

Didn't Maddog say he's vaccinated?

Of even greater concern is that immunologists tell us the delta variant in now only one or two mutations away from 'escaping' the first version of the vaccine. If you were vaccinated after June you're OK for longer but it's quite probable, not inevitable but it's a significant risk, there will be an escape variant by the winter - which is why booster jabs are being planned in the UK

No one can predict which way a mutation will go.
The next mutation could render it useless.

[Cactus Jack]

In my tiny county of about 2.3 million people, we had 1528 people in the hospital with Covid on Jan 6 of this year. On June 6 it was down to 84 people. Now it's back up to 869 as of yesterday. Obviously the Delta variant is taking it's toll, especially on the unvacinnated.

I did see deaths leveling off so maybe folks are heeding the warnings and getting their damn shots. Or maybe they want to gamble with their lives.

They're also gambling with your.

Didn't Maddog say he's vaccinated?

Of even greater concern is that immunologists tell us the delta variant in now only one or two mutations away from 'escaping' the first version of the vaccine. If you were vaccinated after June you're OK for longer but it's quite probable, not inevitable but it's a significant risk, there will be an escape variant by the winter - which is why booster jabs are being planned in the UK

No one can predict which way a mutation will go.
The next mutation could render it useless.

Every mutation will happen - that's the point. The only questions are where, how often and will it stick.

If it happens once in the dessert in Nevada with no-one else living in a 50 mile radius it will die out.

If it happens in a tenement block in a densely populated city that's a different question.

It's looking very much as if there is an escape variant. It's in South America and it seems to be at least partially circumventing Sinovac, a vaccine that operates in a way similar to the AstraZenica vaccine.

[Guest]

Every mutation will happen - that's the point. The only questions are where, how often and will it stick.

If it happens once in the dessert in Nevada with no-one else living in a 50 mile radius it will die out.

If it happens in a tenement block in a densely populated city that's a different question.

It's looking very much as if there is an escape variant. It's in South America and it seems to be at least partially circumventing Sinovac, a vaccine that operates in a way similar to the AstraZenica vaccine.

Not every mutation will happen. Some will and that's why we need booster jabs just like we do for the flu

[Raggamuffin]

It would need to mutate enough for the antibodies resulting from the vaccine to not recognise it. I'm not sure how much it would need to mutate though.

[ArchieG]

It would need to mutate enough for the antibodies resulting from the vaccine to not recognise it. I'm not sure how much it would need to mutate though.

Its got to do that whilst remaing alive, able to replicate and able to cause disease. Most mutations are immediately fatal to the virus, which is why we dont see more strains in the infected population. Obviously there are billions of viruses, all potentially mutating at random (when they replicate, its an inexact replication, technically a genetic mistake) but even so, its not quite as alarming as Jack would like us go think.

[Cactus Jack]

Every mutation will happen - that's the point. The only questions are where, how often and will it stick.

If it happens once in the dessert in Nevada with no-one else living in a 50 mile radius it will die out.

If it happens in a tenement block in a densely populated city that's a different question.

It's looking very much as if there is an escape variant. It's in South America and it seems to be at least partially circumventing Sinovac, a vaccine that operates in a way similar to the AstraZenica vaccine.

Not every mutation will happen. Some will and that's why we need booster jabs just like we do for the flu

Statistically speaking given the amount of virus out there replicating it is a certainty that every mutation will happen, just as if you throw a 100 six sided dice it is a statistical certainty that a dice will land on every number from one to six, it's all about the probabilities - generally speaking a single mutation wouldn't be enough to produce a new variant, but if the right mutations happen in the right order things can go very badly.

The worst case scenario would be for a person to become infected with two different mutations at the same time so those mutations can recombine into a double mutated variant. Obviously the fewer people passing on the vaccine the lower the chance that any person will be infected by two different mutations.

[Cactus Jack]

[Maddog]

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus ... y/2717992/

Clay is politicizing this. He's a politician trying to use kids to score points. He's really a smarmy piece of shit..

My post followed Clay's comments. We approach 100% all the time because we have changing needs. We need fewer beds in the summer. Our bed count will reflect that. Our hospitals are expanding the number of beds available to meet the needs.

Listen to hospital spokespersons. It's getting rough, but not like Clay Jenkins is saying.

[Cactus Jack]

He's not wrong though. Because some people chose not to get covid vaccinations some parents won't get a viable choice to save their children.

[Maddog]

He's not wrong though. Because some people chose not to get covid vaccinations some parents won't get a viable choice to save their children.

He's wrong about capacity. It can be expanded to meet demand. At least up to a point that we haven't reached yet..

He's using kids to go after Abbott.


And like I said in the RSV thread, that's the problem with pediatric ICU beds.

[Rolluplostinspace]

They're also gambling with your.

Didn't Maddog say he's vaccinated?

Of even greater concern is that immunologists tell us the delta variant in now only one or two mutations away from 'escaping' the first version of the vaccine. If you were vaccinated after June you're OK for longer but it's quite probable, not inevitable but it's a significant risk, there will be an escape variant by the winter - which is why booster jabs are being planned in the UK

No one can predict which way a mutation will go.
The next mutation could render it useless.

Every mutation will happen

That is an absolutely meaningless statement.

[Cactus Jack]

He's not wrong though. Because some people chose not to get covid vaccinations some parents won't get a viable choice to save their children.

He's wrong about capacity. It can be expanded to meet demand. At least up to a point that we haven't reached yet..

He's using kids to go after Abbott.


And like I said in the RSV thread, that's the problem with pediatric ICU beds.

Capacity cannot be extended infinitely.

I don't know about Texas but here in the UK we're seeing mid-winter levels of demand in late summer.

Normally when patients go into ICU beds it's a pretty quick turnaround one way or the other. Covid patients can occupy and ICU bed for weeks so once demand starts upwards unless you can control the infection rate things can get very bad very quickly.

Currently in the UK, where it's more or less all Delta variant and just over 75% of the adult population are vaccinated around 2% of confirmed cases are ending up in intensive care. Right now that's not too bad but if we reach the expected level of 100,000 cases per day it would take just 4 days to fill every ICU bed.

Fortunately for us most of the new cases are among the unvaccinated, unfortunately most of the unvaccinated are children and they're going back to school very soon.

[Guest]

Something for the UK to think about.

Last year, with no vaccine, in the weeks before pupils returned to schools the seven day rolling average for deaths was below 10 and the daily count of new cases was under 1,000

There were no hospitals in Code Black

Two weeks after schools returned cases have increased seven fold and we were back in lockdown.

Now the seven day rolling average for deaths is over 100 and the daily count of new cases is 30,000

We are already well past where we went into lockdown despite having the vaccine.

There are hospitals in Code Black in almost every Health Authority Region.

[Cactus Jack]

Something for the UK to think about.

Last year, with no vaccine, in the weeks before pupils returned to schools the seven day rolling average for deaths was below 10 and the daily count of new cases was under 1,000

There were no hospitals in Code Black

Two weeks after schools returned cases have increased seven fold and we were back in lockdown.

Now the seven day rolling average for deaths is over 100 and the daily count of new cases is 30,000

We are already well past where we went into lockdown despite having the vaccine.

There are hospitals in Code Black in almost every Health Authority Region.

I very much doubted that was true so I looked it up.

The seven day moving average for deaths on 22 August 2020 was 9 on 22 August 2021 it's 98
The seven day moving average for new case on 22 August 2020 was 1032 on 22 August 2021 it's 32,210

One month later in 2020 one month later in 2020 the seven day moving averages were 151 deaths and 4,189 new cases, a month after that it was 189 deaths 19,549 new cases and by Christmas it was over 500 deaths

The good news, due to the vaccine, is if you get covid you are only one third as likely to die as you were last year. The bad news is you have well over 30 times more chances to get it.

That's assuming the news about the drop off in anti-bodies among the vaccinated isn't borne out.

[ArchieG]

Something for the UK to think about.

Last year, with no vaccine, in the weeks before pupils returned to schools the seven day rolling average for deaths was below 10 and the daily count of new cases was under 1,000

There were no hospitals in Code Black

Two weeks after schools returned cases have increased seven fold and we were back in lockdown.

Now the seven day rolling average for deaths is over 100 and the daily count of new cases is 30,000

We are already well past where we went into lockdown despite having the vaccine.

There are hospitals in Code Black in almost every Health Authority Region.

I very much doubted that was true so I looked it up.

The seven day moving average for deaths on 22 August 2020 was 9 on 22 August 2021 it's 98
The seven day moving average for new case on 22 August 2020 was 1032 on 22 August 2021 it's 32,210

One month later in 2020 one month later in 2020 the seven day moving averages were 151 deaths and 4,189 new cases, a month after that it was 189 deaths 19,549 new cases and by Christmas it was over 500 deaths

The good news, due to the vaccine, is if you get covid you are only one third as likely to die as you were last year. The bad news is you have well over 30 times more chances to get it.

That's assuming the news about the drop off in anti-bodies among the vaccinated isn't borne out.

The drop of in antibodies isnt that worrying. Your body ‘remembers’ how to make them, and goes into overdrive as the necessity arises. You don’t have any recordable measles antibodies, but you’re still immune to measles.